Fear, Bridges, Ego, and Bankrolls

We fear things proportionately to our ignorance of them. Well it’s tough to be ignorant to the history of judging in mixed martial arts and boxing unless you been living in Syria.

But there’s nothing to fear if you’re a bettor leading into some of the bigger name bouts this week and the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao bout in two weeks. Fear’s already factored into the number. We didn’t just fall off a turnip trucks. No traps here. If you like a fighter to win with you’re perception of value, then bet it.

Coming off the Poland UFC card I had no complaints. I guess the Polish are no dummies. They want the UFC to return so they didn’t pull any rabbits out of hats with bad decisions. Overall a decent card that didn’t have a ton of big names on it. The Ultimate Fighter Reality show season one proved you don’t need to have big names to make great fights.

On to the UFC on Fox in New Jersey. It should be a good one. NJSAC released the judges and referee’s for all the bouts on the card. So know what you’re looking at going into the weekend. Twitter has no space for tissue boxes in 140 or less. You got wrestlers and locals on this card. Do your own homework or pay someone to do it for you. I like winning or losing on my own. I don’t need any help doing either one.

Saturday night Julio Cesar Chavez Jr makes a return off a year layoff and facing a pretty good sized fighter in Andrzej Fonfara. Chavez is about a 3 to 1 favorite in the United States. He’d be higher in Mexico for sure and they would lay it. They’re laying it now. Can he lose? Of course. Will he? He’s the favorite anywhere but him losing won’t break my heart. Looks like one of ‘those bouts.’ But it’s in the number.

In 15 Days the pros, experts, touts, fans, and whatever other labels people chose to put on themselves are going to be on top of the world or walking to bridges beacuse of broken bankrolls, hearts or egos. I watched the open workouts. I’ve listened to the retirement talk from both camps. I’ve heard about leg cramps, fat lips, old legs, trainers, new houses and the list goes on. It’s all nonsense. Come May 2nd two fighters are going to enter the ring and do what they do. Fight. And one’s going to walk out the winner, barring a draw. A draw which is currently the most heavily wagered individual prop I’ve seen in a dozen years on any individual boxing bout. I’ve seen prices as high as 24 to 1 and as low as 12 to 1. I’ve maintained for 5 years that Floyd would win if they fought and I have no reason to believe otherwise now. Regardless, I won’t be walking to any bridges or patting myself on the back because any amount of money risked spends the same on a Superbowl as it does on regular season game. The same as a bout of this magnitude or a UFC undercard. The lines doing what it’s supposed to do and generating two way action sitting with Floyd at about -200 (2 to 1). An old drunk gambler at the bar told me once ‘get a hunch bet a bunch.’ But there’s no need to. It all spends the same. Why go rabbit ears overboard unless of course you ‘think you know something.’ And if you don’t have your mind made up after five years, the preview shows did their jobs. Game on.

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