"Sometimes wrong; never in doubt. Always on time."
- Joey Oddessa
STRANGE MAYWEATHER VS. MCGREGOR BETTING ODDS ARE MADE TO MAKE DOLLARS, NOT SENSE
Let’s get something straight right out of the gate: the odds for the newly announced and already massively-hyped Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor fight are skewed.
For all those hearty McGregor fans already betting their money hand over fist, it’s not a case in which the outspoken Irishman should be less of an underdog. If anything, he should be a far greater dog for this August 26 spectacle at T-Mobile Arena on the Las Vegas Strip.
Think about the following fact, pointed out on Twitter by Matthew Holt, COO of CG Analytics in Las Vegas:
“To show how mispriced the fight is in terms of actual probabilities. Floyd was -3,500 vs. a boxing CHAMPION in Andre Berto but only -1,000 here,” Holt tweeted out, in a comparison to Mayweather’s last fight, in which he scored an easy unanimous decision in September 2015.
Oh, and Holt’s tweet was sent Thursday morning. Since then, there’s been another day’s worth of bets flooding in on McGregor – batches and batches of $10, $20 and $50 wagers – that dropped Mayweather down to -650, with McGregor just a +475 underdog on the buyback.
“The reason for this pricing currently, and more importantly the early on action on McGregor, is simple: sharps do not want to tie up their money for more than two months if they believe they can still get a good price later,” said Holt, whose operation supplies odds to CG Technology sportsbooks around Vegas, including at The Cosmopolitan, M Resort and the Venetian. Thus, there probably won’t be a massive wave of Floyd money until we get much closer to the actual fight. The line dropped all the way to -650 Thursday, as all the books took nothing but small bets on McGregor.
“The books know they will get tons of Floyd buyback during fight week, so why give people 7/1 on McGregor now when they are willing to bet him at 4/1?”
To more simply explain why the odds are where they are, think of the quote from infamous criminal Willie Sutton, who when asked why he robbed banks replied: “Because that’s where the money is.” Right now, almost all the money – even though it’s primarily a sea of small bets – is on McGregor, so the odds have to adjust to reflect that fact and deflect at least some liability.
That could be changing, though, now that the mega-matchup is set. If you’re confident that Mayweather will win this match with ease – which is what many oddsmakers and experts believe will be the case, whether by knockout or lopsided decision – and you’ve got the money to make the return on investment worthwhile, then why wouldn’t you bet on Mayweather?
If this was your 401(k) plan or an IRA, you’d be thrilled at a 10 percent return on investment. So why wouldn’t it be the same for deep-pocketed bettors – particularly professional players – with the supposed sure thing in Money Mayweather?
That’s how it should be looked at now, at least according to highly-regarded MMA and boxing oddsmaker Joey Oddessa.
“I spoke to a few bookmakers who have written 90 percent of the action and nine of every 10 tickets on Conor, but they won’t go any lower (on odds) because they ‘don’t want to give it away,’” Oddessa said Wednesday night, a few hours after the bout was finalized. “Now that they have a date, you have to look at Floyd as a 74-day investment where you’re getting about a 10 percent return on the dollar after Floyd wins. Bookmakers have to be thrilled giving the McGregor players about 6/1 returns on their money, where the guy’s got about a 3 to 4 percent chance of winning – and that’s being generous.”
And again, the return on Mayweather has already increased at some spots such as CG, at about 17 percent now.
“Floyd is the best boxer of his generation,” Oddessa said. “Hell, Ricky Hatton would beat Conor in a boxing match after a night out on the town. I can’t express enough how happy I am that the media and fans are actually embracing this fight and somehow making an argument that it’s going to be competitive. It’s not even going to be close. The scorecards will read like the NBA playoffs games for the Golden State Warriors, 120-96 or so, if the bout gets past four rounds.”
Still, as with many other sports, popularity draws betting action. Holt rightly notes that McGregor is by far the most popular male fighter in the history of MMA, while on the flip side, many people are not fans of Mayweather, for a variety of reasons. That doesn’t mean all the money will continue crashing in on Conor. There will be an ebb-and-flow over the next two and a half months.
“The odds are going to fluctuate dramatically, because there will be weeks where several huge Floyd bets come in and odds go up. Some sharps will panic and bet it early to ensure they get the best line on Mayweather,” Holt said. “Then there will be more weeks where we take nothing but $20 to $2,000 bets on Conor. At the end of the day, we are going to write 10 times more tickets on Conor and more money on Floyd.”
Holt said there are essentially no limits on bet size for this fight, though he added that if someone got crazy and wanted to put down $5 million, CG might not be able to take all of that. But the big wagers will definitely be there, and they’ll be on the relatively underpriced favorite Mayweather.
“Let me put it this way: we already anticipate taking seven-figure wagers on Floyd by fight night,” Holt said.
Many books expect to need Mayweather in this fight, with an opportunity to clean up on the deluge of McGregor money. Oddessa certainly isn’t going to argue against that notion.
“Don’t let anyone kid you. This is like the invisible man, Floyd Mayweather, robbing Fort Knox without getting a scratch on him,” he said, alluding to Mayweather’s possible $100 million payday. “He walks in the ring, moves around out of reach of McGregor’s desperate shots. Floyd maybe bruises a knuckle or two, and walks out almost twice as wealthy. The same can be said of Conor regarding the payday, but he’s going to take some shots.
“I cannot imagine any scenario where Conor McGregor can win this fight. None.”
Even if the odds fall far short of suggesting that.
| Title: Opening odds: Strange Mayweather vs. MCgregor betting odds are made to make dollars, not sense
| Author: Patrick Everson , Covers
| Date: JUN 16, 2017
51 Comments
sellier and bellot primers
[…]the time to read or check out the subject material or websites we’ve linked to below the[…]
[…] cialis without a doctor prescription […]
Title
[…]here are some hyperlinks to sites that we link to due to the fact we feel they’re really worth visiting[…]
Beretta m9a3
[…]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a number of unrelated information, nonetheless genuinely really worth taking a appear, whoa did one study about Mid East has got much more problerms too […]
THC Oil for Sale
[…]Here is a good Weblog You may Find Exciting that we Encourage You[…]
thelottovip
[…]one of our guests lately advised the following website[…]
Title
[…]we prefer to honor quite a few other world-wide-web sites on the internet, even when they aren’t linked to us, by linking to them. Under are some webpages really worth checking out[…]
Title
[…]the time to read or pay a visit to the material or websites we’ve linked to beneath the[…]
Title
[…]one of our visitors not long ago recommended the following website[…]
Title
[…]very handful of websites that take place to become in depth below, from our point of view are undoubtedly effectively worth checking out[…]
Title
[…]Here is a superb Weblog You may Locate Intriguing that we Encourage You[…]
Title
[…]please visit the web-sites we stick to, including this one, as it represents our picks through the web[…]
[…] viagra femenina […]
Colt Python
[…]just beneath, are a lot of totally not associated websites to ours, nevertheless, they are certainly worth going over[…]
Title
[…]one of our visitors not too long ago proposed the following website[…]
Title
[…]Here are a number of the web pages we suggest for our visitors[…]
Title
[…]below you’ll obtain the link to some websites that we feel you ought to visit[…]
Buy DMT online Victoria Australia
[…]check beneath, are some completely unrelated web sites to ours, on the other hand, they are most trustworthy sources that we use[…]
[…] was passiert wenn man viagra nimmt ohne es zu brauchen […]
male pocket stroker
[…]although web sites we backlink to beneath are considerably not connected to ours, we feel they may be really really worth a go by means of, so possess a look[…]
how to use a dildo
[…]here are some links to web pages that we link to mainly because we assume they may be worth visiting[…]
Title
[…]very handful of web sites that transpire to become detailed beneath, from our point of view are undoubtedly effectively worth checking out[…]
how to masturbate using remote controlled g spot massager
[…]always a huge fan of linking to bloggers that I like but really don’t get lots of link love from[…]
[…] viagra deutsch […]
Title
[…]we prefer to honor numerous other web websites around the internet, even when they aren’t linked to us, by linking to them. Below are some webpages really worth checking out[…]
tiktokdownload
[…]usually posts some very fascinating stuff like this. If you are new to this site[…]
Title
[…]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a number of unrelated data, nonetheless actually worth taking a look, whoa did 1 study about Mid East has got a lot more problerms too […]
Title
[…]Sites of interest we’ve a link to[…]
Title
[…]Sites of interest we have a link to[…]
[…] tadalafil tablet 20 mg […]
Title
[…]Every as soon as in a although we opt for blogs that we study. Listed below are the newest web sites that we select […]
krt cart
[…]below youll uncover the link to some web sites that we think you must visit[…]
Hk vp9
[…]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine several unrelated information, nevertheless genuinely really worth taking a look, whoa did a single discover about Mid East has got much more problerms at the same time […]
Title
[…]The facts talked about inside the post are some of the very best out there […]
Krt carts
[…]we came across a cool website which you could take pleasure in. Take a appear for those who want[…]
computer doktor bubikon
[…]just beneath, are various totally not connected sites to ours, nonetheless, they may be certainly worth going over[…]
Title
[…]one of our visitors not too long ago advised the following website[…]
Title
[…]we like to honor many other internet sites on the net, even if they aren’t linked to us, by linking to them. Underneath are some webpages really worth checking out[…]
Ps5 for Sale
[…]Every the moment inside a even though we choose blogs that we read. Listed beneath are the most up-to-date sites that we select […]
Title
[…]Every as soon as inside a while we pick out blogs that we study. Listed below would be the most current sites that we pick out […]
Title
[…]we prefer to honor several other world wide web websites on the web, even when they aren’t linked to us, by linking to them. Beneath are some webpages worth checking out[…]
Title
[…]the time to read or check out the material or websites we’ve linked to beneath the[…]
Title
[…]very handful of internet websites that come about to be detailed below, from our point of view are undoubtedly very well worth checking out[…]
raw gemstones for sale
[…]usually posts some really intriguing stuff like this. If youre new to this site[…]
kimber bel air
[…]always a massive fan of linking to bloggers that I like but do not get a great deal of link really like from[…]
Title
[…]Sites of interest we’ve a link to[…]
Title
[…]usually posts some pretty interesting stuff like this. If you’re new to this site[…]
Title
[…]although internet sites we backlink to below are considerably not related to ours, we feel they are truly worth a go via, so possess a look[…]
Title
[…]check beneath, are some completely unrelated internet sites to ours, even so, they’re most trustworthy sources that we use[…]
Title
[…]Every once inside a when we decide on blogs that we read. Listed below are the latest sites that we pick […]
Title
[…]although internet websites we backlink to beneath are considerably not associated to ours, we really feel they’re really really worth a go via, so have a look[…]