"Sometimes wrong; never in doubt. Always on time."
- Joey Oddessa
UFC 223 opening odds: Joanna Jedrzejczyk favored vs. champ Rose Namajunas, despite KO loss
It’s not quite like last time, but Joanna Jedrzejczyk is still the betting favorite against Rose Namajunas.
Champ Namajunas (7-3 MMA, 5-2 UFC) will defend her strawweight title vs. Jedrzejczyk (14-1 MMA, 8-1 UFC) in the UFC 223 co-headliner, which takes place April 7 at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y., and airs on pay-per-view following prelims on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.
The bout is an immediate rematch of their UFC 217 encounter, where Namajunas won with a first-round knockout of the previously undefeated Jedrzejczyk to claim the belt. It was shocking given Jedrzejczyk closed as a more than 8-1 favorite.
Despite Namajunas’ dominant performance, Jedrzejczyk remains the favorite for the rematch, according to the Oddessa Line. Veteran MMA oddsmaker Joey Oddessa has set Jedrzejczyk at -225 with Namajunas coming back at +180.
At those odds, a winning $100 bet on Jedrzejczyk would result in a net profit of $44.44 (implied win probability of 69 percent).
A winning $100 bet on Namajunas, meanwhile, would net a profit of $180 (36 percent win probability).
What gives?
“This is the type of fight stats guys live for,” Oddessa told MMAjunkie. “It’s about where the challenger is favored, and it’s a rematch of a bout the underdog and current champion won by a shocking first-round stoppage as a close to 5-1 underdog. Statisticians will sharpen their pencils and scratch out all the reasons why they think Rose should be the betting favorite only to get reminded later that night that fights aren’t won on paper. They’re won in the cage.
“And if Jedrzejczyk doesn’t show up as cocky as she did in the first encounter, she’ll look every bit of the 2-to-1 favorite she enters the cage at when the fight’s over.”
Jedrzejczyk’s antics were a hot topic leading up to their last fight, with the then-champ even invoking Namajunas’ history of mental instability.
Prior to being knocked out by Namajunas, Jedrzejczyk was widely acknowledged as the best female fighter on the planet. Even so, she remains in the UFC’s official pound-for-pound rankings at No. 15.
| Title: UFC 223 opening odds: Joanna Jedrzejczyk favored vs. champ Rose Namajunas, despite KO loss
| Author: Simon Samano / MMAJunkie
| Date: Jan 22 2018
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