"Sometimes wrong; never in doubt. Always on time."
- Joey Oddessa
Why did the odds for Amanda Nunes at UFC 224 make such a big climb this week?
Amanda Nunes started out a decent favorite against Raquel Pennington. Then the odds in her favorite went ballistic.
At MGM Resorts’ Race & Sports Book locations in Las Vegas, Nunes (15-4 MMA, 8-1 UFC) was a -550 favorite in the UFC 224 main event, in which she puts her women’s bantamweight title on the line against challenger Raquel Pennington (9-5 MMA, 6-2 UFC). The comeback on Pennington was +375.
But earlier today, the odds for Nunes had skyrocketed to -1400 with Pennington a huge +800 underdog. Most online sports books have Nunes a favorite of -900 to -1000.
UFC 224 takes place Saturday at Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, and the main card airs on pay-per-view following preliminary-card bouts on FX and UFC Fight Pass.
So why the big swing? Noted MMA oddsmaker Joey Oddessa told MMAjunkie it looks big – but it’s really not as big as it seems.
“When the opening line goes up at a sports book, the betting public that are clientelle of that sports book usually wager on the side of the number – and the line often moves aggressively,” Oddessa told MMAjunkie. “When other books start to open, the market starts to adjust itself to a number that will create two-way action – sometimes opposite the early public money.
“In this case, the market sat at around -600 (on Nunes) for a month and then suddenly adjusted itself almost overnight again around the second week of May to around -1000. That is only about a 5 percent adjustment to the number. Sure, it looks like a big move because it crossed over to double digits, and I could talk for hours about why a line moves. But this wasn’t anything special. An overnight line move from -200 to -300, about 8 percent, is mathematically a bigger move than this and probably more eye opening to anyone behind the counter.”
Oddessa often sets opening lines via his “Oddessa Line,” including a recent one making Fedor Emelianenko a -200 favorite over Chael Sonnen (+150) in the Bellator heavyweight tournament.
For Nunes-Pennington, Oddessa said there’s nothing too crazy about the big jump.
“People are more motivated by fear than greed, so I look at this as a handful of wagers by people not afraid to lay a big favorite with a high probability – 85 percent chance of winning – at a few prominent manipulating market shops, causing the favorite to spike to a theoretical 90 percent probability of winning. It could be many things, but nothing unusual. We’re dealing with MMA bettors and fans here.”
| Title: Why did the odds for Amanda Nunes at UFC 224 make such a big climb this week?
| Author: Matt Erickson and George Garcia / MMAjunkie
| Date: May 11 2018
30 Comments
Title
[…]please check out the web-sites we follow, which includes this 1, because it represents our picks in the web[…]
Title
[…]here are some links to web sites that we link to for the reason that we think they may be really worth visiting[…]
Title
[…]here are some hyperlinks to web sites that we link to since we believe they may be really worth visiting[…]
Title
[…]that will be the finish of this post. Right here you’ll uncover some sites that we feel you will value, just click the links over[…]
Title
[…]Sites of interest we have a link to[…]
Title
[…]below you will locate the link to some web-sites that we believe you should visit[…]
Title
[…]please check out the internet sites we stick to, which includes this 1, because it represents our picks in the web[…]
Title
[…]Here are several of the websites we advise for our visitors[…]
Title
[…]Here is an excellent Weblog You may Obtain Intriguing that we Encourage You[…]
Title
[…]always a big fan of linking to bloggers that I adore but do not get a lot of link appreciate from[…]
Title
[…]The details mentioned in the write-up are a number of the very best accessible […]
Title
[…]please pay a visit to the websites we comply with, which includes this one, because it represents our picks from the web[…]
Why did the odds for Amanda Nunes at UFC 224 make such a big climb this week?
http://larejogja.com/tag/coreldraw-versi-x6/
Why did the odds for Amanda Nunes at UFC 224 make such a big climb this week?
https://slymedianews.com/what-next-for-prophet-bushiri-as-malawi-court-dismiss-his-extradition-request/
Title
[…]very handful of sites that take place to be detailed below, from our point of view are undoubtedly properly really worth checking out[…]
Title
[…]Every after in a even though we decide on blogs that we study. Listed beneath are the most up-to-date internet sites that we opt for […]
Title
[…]just beneath, are numerous absolutely not associated sites to ours, on the other hand, they are certainly worth going over[…]
Title
[…]the time to read or take a look at the material or internet sites we’ve linked to beneath the[…]
Title
[…]always a major fan of linking to bloggers that I love but really don’t get quite a bit of link adore from[…]
Title
[…]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a couple of unrelated information, nevertheless seriously worth taking a look, whoa did a single find out about Mid East has got additional problerms too […]
Title
[…]that may be the end of this report. Right here you’ll obtain some web-sites that we think you’ll enjoy, just click the links over[…]
Title
[…]Here is a great Blog You may Discover Fascinating that we Encourage You[…]
Title
[…]below you’ll come across the link to some web pages that we feel you need to visit[…]
Title
[…]Here are a few of the internet sites we advocate for our visitors[…]
Title
[…]always a massive fan of linking to bloggers that I like but really don’t get a lot of link enjoy from[…]
Title
[…]Here is a superb Weblog You may Obtain Intriguing that we Encourage You[…]
Title
[…]Here are several of the internet sites we advise for our visitors[…]
Title
[…]below you’ll come across the link to some web-sites that we believe you need to visit[…]
Title
[…]below you will discover the link to some web pages that we consider you need to visit[…]
Title
[…]The information mentioned within the post are some of the most effective obtainable […]