What better way to ring in the New Year than a punch to the face. That's what the UFC is banking on, holding UFC 125: Resolution at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas Saturday night.
And if the New Year's Day card wasn't treat enough for fight fans, oddsmakers are tempting MMA bettors with a rare opportunity, pricing the defending UFC lightweight champ as the underdog in Saturday's main event.
Lightweight title holder Frankie Edgar will be listed around +115 when he climbs into the octagon against undefeated challenger Gray Maynard, who opened as the favorite and has been bet up as high as -160 in the months leading into the Jan. 1 event.
Oddsmakers opened the lines for UFC 125 back in September, pricing Maynard at -125, just days after both he and Edgar impressed fans at UFC 118. Maynard took a decision win over lightweight gatekeeper Kenny Florian while Edgar handed B.J. Penn his second straight loss after taking Penn's title back in April.
"Oddly enough, both Frankie and Gray entered their UFC 118 bouts that night as underdogs and left with a title bout on deck," says renowned boxing and MMA oddsmaker Joey Oddessa.
This is the second meeting between Edgar and Maynard, who battled each other to a decision at UFC Fight Night in April 2008. That night, Edgar came into the bout as a -160 favorite but fell on the judges' scorecards to the bigger and stronger opponent, giving him his lone professional defeat.
Oddessa says while Edgar's loss to Maynard had something to do with the action on the challenger, it didn't play into the setting of the odds for UFC 125, stating that both fighters are much different combatants now and have 10 combined wins between them since their first meeting.
"It shows how far both fighters have come from undercard status to main-event championship status on New Year's Day, along with the public perception of both fighters," Oddessa says of the change in odds between 2008 and this Saturday's bout.
While he agrees with pricing the defending champ as the underdog, Oddessa believes Edgar has the experience edge, especially with Saturday's title fight scheduled for five rounds compared to the regular three. This will be Edgar's third straight five-round bout, going the distance in the last two, while Maynard has yet to compete outside of the three-round format.
"I think the first two rounds will be telling. I always felt opposite the public in that it is often tougher to beat a guy twice," says Oddessa. "Edgar did that against Penn, but you have to factor in that the bout is 10 minutes longer than their first encounter and that Edgar is now the champion, which gives both added motivation."
Oddessa expects Edgar to push the tempo early in order to bank rounds, much like he did against Penn. A frustrated Maynard could start chasing the mobile Edgar around, trying to cut off the cage and get into a foot race with a well-conditioned champ adapt to five-round battles.
"The extra 10 minutes and the spotlight are going to be new territory for Gray," says Oddessa. "I think there are so many unknowns heading into this bout, that Edgar coming in as the champion at plus money might be the way to go."
UFC 125 odds and picks:
Frankie Edgar (+115) vs. Gray Maynard (-145)
Pick: Edgar +115
Chris Leben (-170) vs. Brian Stann (+140)
Pick: Stann +140
Brandon Vera (+115) vs. Thiago Silva (-145)
Pick: Silva -145
Nate Diaz (-105) vs. Dong