The WBO welterweight championship of the world is on the line Saturday night at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas as undefeated champion Timothy Bradley, Jr. (31-0, 12 KOs) squares off against Manny Pacquiao (55-5-2, 38 KOs) in a rematch of the duo's highly controversial 2012 encounter.
It's been 22 months since the career arcs of both fighters were drastically altered due to one of the worst judging debacles the sport has ever witnessed. On June 9, 2012, Bradley scored a split decision victory over Pacquiao in a bout that should have resulted in nothing less than a unanimous decision triumph for the Filipino Slugger. Since that night, Bradley's stock has been skyrocketing thanks to both a March, 2013 unanimous decision slugfest win over Ruslan Provodnikov in ESPN's 2013 Fight of the Year and a split decision victory over Mexican favorite Juan Manuel Marquez in October of the same year.
As for Pacquiao, the Bradley loss brought a screeching halt to a 15-fight winning streak that dated back to September of 2005. Six months following the defeat, Pacquiao was knocked unconscious in the sixth round by the aforementioned Marquez, marking the first back-to-back losing streak of the former champion's career. However, Pacquiao took his game to Macao, China 11 months later to grab a 12-round unanimous decision victory over the up-and-coming Brandon Rios.
The storylines for Saturday night's rematch are familiar ones. For Pacquiao, it's about redemption and showing the world there's still plenty of gas left in those 35-year-old legs. For Bradley, it's about cementing his place near the top of his sport while winning over fight fans who have been dismissing the 30-year-old's talent ever since that controversial Saturday night 22 months ago.
BEHIND THE COUNTER
Saturday night's fight hit the board in Las Vegas with Manny Pacquiao as anywhere from a -200 to -230 favorite and Bradley as a +170 to +200 underdog, but those numbers didn't last very long. As of Saturday morning, the Wynn was offering Pacquiao -265/Bradley +225, while the LVH sports book had Pacquiao -250/Bradley +210 posted. Those in Sin City looking for a better price on Pacman would be best served checking out the Coast properties, who are offering a -230/+180 price tag. Offshore shop Pinnacle currently has Pacquiao as a -216 favorite.
The over/under for the fight has been set at 9.5 rounds, with the over heavily juiced anywhere from -284 offshore to -360 in Vegas.
The key, however, is determining when to grab the best price for your fighter of choice.
"We've had some early Pacman money, but I do see us getting underdog money on fight night," Jay Rood, vice president of race & sports for MGM Resorts told Covers.com. "This is a hard fight to read the public money on. The action on Pacquiao has slowed his last few fights, but the outcome of Pacquiao-Bradley I may see [Pacquiao's] old supporters come back."
Head north on Las Vegas Boulevard and you'll hear something similar from Johnny Avello, the executive director of race & sports at the Wynn.
"Pacquiao will get the backing he always does," Avello told Covers. "He won the first fight between these two easily, but the scoring was terrible and bettors want their money back. We've been taking significant action on Pacquiao all week and have moved the line from the opener of -220/+190 to -265/+225."
"The public has been supporting Pacauiao pretty heavily since the opening number of -185," Jeff Sherman, assistant sports book manager at the LVH told Covers. "We currently sit at Pacquiao -250, as many figure he should have won the first fight. I'm making an educated guess that this fight has reached its apex and that some dog money will show up Saturday evening as it usually does on fight day."
In regards to who the books will be rooting for come Saturday night, the response from Rood, Avello and Sherman was nearly identical.
"I can't speak for all the books, but the house will need Bradley here at the Wynn," said Avello.
CAPPING THE FIGHT
"It's not what you know, it's what you don't know that can hurt you. That sums up everything about Manny," well respected longtime boxing and MMA handicapper Joey Oddessa told Covers. "We know he can fight, we know he can lose, we know he can be robbed on the cards and get knocked out. He looks ready in the gym. What we don't know is what's in his head. He's got so many things going on in his life with his politics, religion, and is even meeting with ex-Presidents on TV. He's a global celebrity."
Oddessa isn't the only person expressing some concern over Pacquiao's state of mind.
"Despite what Pacquiao has been saying about regaining the killer instinct, I see something missing in Manny," Graham Houston, a boxing writer and handicapper from Boxing Monthly and FightWriter.com who has been covering the sport since 1963 told Covers. "Without in any way wishing to be seen as putting down someone's spiritual beliefs, I don't like Manny's ‘with God's help' and ‘getting closer to God' comments. They don't send the right message to me."
Houston also expressed some concern over a decision Pacquiao made regarding his corner.
"Pacquiao has brought [conditioning coach] Justin Fortune back on board," said Houston. "[Pacquiao's trainer] Freddie Roach and Justin Fortune had quite a nasty falling out. Will there be a bit of negative energy floating around? I believe it was entirely Manny's decision to bring Justin Fortune back; I very much doubt that Freddie would have wanted this. It's just a thought going through my head, but a fight like this can come down to inches, and every inch can count."
So what are the keys to winning Saturday night's title fight?
"For Manny, I think it has to be speed, fast movement, fast punching in volume, lots of movement in, out, to the sides of and around Bradley," said Houston. "For Bradley, obviously he has to be as fast as he can be, but I think the key is accuracy, timing, lots of head movement, and the jab — many people don't realize this, but the jab can be very effective against a southpaw. And Timothy has to stay steady and focused and keep it simple, one round at a time, always ready to fire back and punch with Pacquiao."
So what's the best time to bet your fighter of choice?
"The line has been sitting ballpark -220 or 2 to 1 since opening and peaked just higher than -250 at reputable online sports books," said Odessa. "Depending on the undercard results, you may catch a good price on Bradley late. If the preview shows do a good job, Manny will look like money. And there may not be a boxing favorites parlay out there without Manny tied into Floyd Mayweather's May bout against Marcos Maidana. Late money will push up the market price on Manny which would benefit anyone who likes Bradley."
THE PICK
Laying upwards of -260 on an aging fighter who hasn't exactly been at his best in recent years is definitely cause for concern, not to mention the fact that his opponent across the ring appears to be in top form based on his last two outings. So the big question here is do you back the big name and the revenge angle or the younger fighter with possibly even more to prove?
"It will go to the cards and I know I'll need Bradley to pull it out when they tally the scores," said Oddessa."