"Sometimes wrong; never in doubt. Always on time."
- Joey Oddessa
Conor McGregor fighting uphill battle against Rafael dos Anjos, according to oddsmakers
UFC featherweight champ Conor McGregor (19-2 MMA, 7-0 UFC) may be one of the fastest rising superstars in MMA, but he’s still an underdog in his quest for UFC history, according to oddsmakers.
Notable wagering expert and oddsmaker Joey Oddessa believes the betting line “rightfully” has the Irishman as an underdog and isn’t sure that will change prior to his anticipated UFC 197 matchup with UFC lightweight champ Rafael dos Anjos (25-7 MMA, 14-5 UFC), who has been established as an early favorite at -145.
“Conor McGregor has defied the odds, and in spite of him being the betting favorite at fight time in all of his previous bouts at the majority of sports books, he enters UFC 197 as a small underdog at +115 in the early lines that are posted almost a dozen weeks out – and rightfully so,” Oddessa told MMAjunkie. “Conor is stepping up a full weight class to challenge Rafael dos Anjos for the lightweight championship after coming off a spectacular, record-breaking knockout of Jose Aldo, who was widely regarded as the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world.
“Rafael dos Anjos has won 10 of his last 11 bouts, and size and experience do matter. It’s easy to make excuses for Aldo losing the fight, but the fact is Conor proved he is legit. But in this instance, I think he bit off more than he can chew.
“European supporters of Conor are going to have to go really heavy to the betting windows to flip Conor to the favorite. Many of the advantages he enjoyed over Aldo, including a year layoff and displeasure with the organization, are two burdens that Rafael won’t have to enter the octagon with. Rafael will, however, be carrying with him a size, skill and weight advantage.”
UFC 197, which was originally planned for Rio de Janeiro, is instead expected to take place March 5 at Las Vegas’ MGM Grand Garden Arena. An official announcement of the card is expected today.
In the night’s co-feature, new UFC women’s bantamweight champ Holly Holm (10-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC) takes on Miesha Tate (17-5 MMA, 4-2 UFC).
Holm was a massive underdog in her UFC 193 meeting with then-champ Ronda Rousey before scoring an incredible knockout victory. Oddessa said the public has been quick to acknowledge Holm’s skills, and she’s a big favorite in her first title defense.
“Holly Holm turned out to be a pleasant surprise to underdog bettors when she upset Ronda Rousey entering the octagon as high as a +900 underdog against the champ,” Oddessa said. “Prior to her title shot, Holm was also the betting favorite in all of her bouts leading into UFC 193.
“Holm also carried a spectacular 33-2-3 boxing record, of which the majority took place in her home state of New Mexico, dating as far back as 2005. Holm’s boxing credentials led many Rousey backers to believe Holm was a one-dimensional standup fighter and an easy nights work for Ronda.
“You would expect much the same to hold true now against Tate, but that’s not the case. Holm (-370) enters as nearly a 4-to-1 favorite against an opponent that Rousey beat twice. It’s the kind of bout bettors get caught speeding with: striker vs. wrestler. If Tate (+310) learned from Ronda’s mistakes, she’s got a legit shot to upset her. If she thinks she can stand in front of the world champion boxer and strike, Holly will give her a face lift.”
| Title: Conor McGregor fighting uphill battle against Rafael dos Anjos, according to oddsmakers
| Author: MMAjunkie Staff / Joey Oddessa
| Date: Jan 10, 2016
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