Four Mayweather-Pacquiao Bets You Should Make Right Now

With big bets recently coming in on Floyd Mayweather, it may be the best time to bet Manny Pacquiao between now and fight night on May 2

Fight fans and boxing bettors are just about three weeks away from finally getting Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao in the same ring – a mega bout that has been in the works since 2009.

This much-anticipated fight is expected to shatter records in terms of draw, viewers and betting action, which has been hot and heavy ever since sportsbooks posted the official odds back in February. And like any massive sporting event, the wagering options for Mayweather-Pacquiao don’t just stop at the side. There’s a long list of prop bets available.

The bulk of the betting handle will still come in on fight night at books in Las Vegas as well as online. But we talk to renowned boxing oddsmaker Joey Oddessa about which Mayweather-Pacquiao bets are holding the most value before May 2, gauging the current line moves and expected adjustments.

Here are four Mayweather-Pacquiao bets to punch now, rather than later:

Pacquiao to Win
Oddsmakers opened Mayweather around a -300 favorite and the early money jumped on Pacquiao at plus money, so much so that some online books dropped as low as Mayweather -190 with a 2-to-1 difference in action on the underdog compared to the favorite.

It would seem getting the best price on Pacquiao is gone but there is opportunity opening up with large wagers coming in on Mayweather, and pumping him back to -220. According to Oddessa, the current ticket count now favors Pacquiao around 3-to-1 but the biggest bets have been on Mayweather and those have evened out the handle in terms of money on either side.

As fight night draws closer, the betting public will get more involved. The promise of a plus-money payday and the average fans’ disdain for Mayweather will see the majority of wagers placed on the underdog, once again trimming Pacquiao’s odds.

In Las Vegas, there’s always a large migration of Filipino tourists coming to take in Pacquiao’s fights and they bet their national hero with both fists, driving a shift in the odds in the hours before the bell rings. Oddessa says the Nevada market could be 20 to 50 cents off from what online books are offering, but does project a late move toward Pacquiao – and sharp money hitting Mayweather as late as possible.

“I don’t think you’ll see the Floyd money hit the screen. The biggest bets will be on Floyd at post,” he says. “We’ll never really get to see the true closing number because it will come in so late. You see the ‘closing line’ but that won’t reflect that money on Floyd at post.”

Draw
The line on a Draw has also been bombarded with early action, falling from 22/1 to 14/1 since opening. This prop could continue to be a popular play when the public shows up at the window, with bettors on the fence about who to bet and looking to just have action down on the biggest fight in years.

Oddessa says the money coming in on a Draw is the most amount of action on that prop he’s seen since Oscar De La Hoya’s respective bouts with Mayweather and Pacquiao. Mayweather won on controversial spit decision versus De La Hoya and Pacquiao was awarded the victory when De La Hoya did not continue after eight rounds.

“There’s always conspiracy theorists out there predicting a rematch for another windfall of money for the fighters and the economy if lightning should strike,” says Oddessa.

Will Either Fighter be Knocked Down?
This prop has some of the higher limits heading into the May 2 bout and has drawn a fair share of the betting action. Rumors of Mayweather getting beat up in sparring seasons and reports of Pacquiao suffering from leg cramps in training sparked interest in the “Yes” side of the prop at +150.

That buzz from each fighter’s camp has calmed and money is beginning to show up on “No” which opened at -200. With Mayweather pretty much going untouched throughout his career – only getting knocked down twice – and Pacquiao playing it safe (three straight decision wins) since his chin was shattered versus Juan Manuel Márquez in 2012, the value is there with the “No” prop but the window is closing quickly.

Over/Under Round Props
Most of the Mayweather-Pacquiao props are pretty drum tight and the action has dictated that, with solid two-way handle on most offers. The props drawing increasingly lopsided play are those which have the highest price tags.

One prop in particular drawing one-way money is the Under 2.5 rounds (1:30 Round 3) which is paying out at a spicy +1,600. Of course, the divide in money is simply due to the fact that no one wants to pay -7,000 to play the Over 2.5 rounds. But if you are taking a flyer on the Under, do it now before the public continues to pile on this long-shot prop.

“It’s tough to pick these props apart now but everyone has a different perception of value,” says Oddessa. “Sportsbooks have been dealing many of the props with limits as high as $10,000 and we are still just under a month away."

"This is the Super Bowl of boxing."

| Fight: Pacquiao vs. Mayweather Jr.
| Author: Jason Logan @CoversJLo
| Bets: joey Oddessa Oddessa.com
| Date: May 2nd, 2015

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