"Sometimes wrong; never in doubt. Always on time."
- Joey Oddessa
Mixed martial arts is unique in a way from most professional sports. Matches are made months in advance with fighters prepping for a particular opponent, giving fight fans and MMA bettors time to sink their teeth into the fight odds before making their MMA betting picks.
But while MMA betting does give plenty of grace between announcement and the toll of the bell, there are some red flags bettors should keep an eye on as they handicap upcoming bouts:
Return from injury
We’ve seen some pretty devastating injuries in recent years, including career-threatening ones to some of the biggest names in the sport. If you are handicapping a fighter coming back from a bad injury, figure out how that changes them as a fighter.
A knee injury or broken leg could have a massive impact on a fighter who relies on movement and speed. Any upper-body injuries – shoulders, elbows, wrists and hands – may take a pop out of a strikers punches or leave a grappler weak.
Coming off a KO
While they seem like the toughest guys on the planet, MMA fighters can break. Sometimes it’s physical and sometimes it’s mental. A fighter coming off a crushing knockout loss can quickly change the way they approach the octagon, either scared to get KO’d once again – causing them to change their style. Or the knockout can weaken what was once a rock-solid chin. Over time those blows add up and it becomes easier to fall victim to a KO punch.
Cutting weight
With all the weight divisions in MMA now, fighters bounce between classes almost on a fight-to-fight basis. A fighter stepping down in weight, say light heavyweight to middleweight, may have trouble making the 185-pound limit if they naturally walk around at 205 pounds.
Keep a close ear to the MMA circles to see how a fighter’s weight cut progress is doing. Are they ahead or behind schedule? Will they frantically have to shed pounds in the days before weigh in, leaving them emaciated for fight night?
Sometimes the shoe can be on the other foot, with a light fighter jumping up in weight. They can struggle to add poundage, taking them out of their comfort zone and adding fat instead of muscle. That’s a lot of extra weight to be carrying around the ring.