Oddsmaker Joey Oddessa: Miocic upsetting Werdum is ‘wishful thinking’

With Cain Velasquez’s withdrawal from UFC 196, oddsmakers had to reevaluate the night’s main event. In the eyes of MMAjunkie oddsmaker Joey Oddessa, the crown will stay firmly planted atop the head of Fabricio Werdum.

Oddessa is listing Werdum (20-5-1 MMA, 8-2 UFC) at -215 to retain his title against late-replacement challenger Stipe Miocic (14-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC) – who is listed at +175. The oddsmaker was not gentle in explaining the betting line.

“I’m not thrilled about Stipe getting a shot and make no secret that I’m no fan,” Oddessa said. “Any hopes I had of a UFC heavyweight champion with Croatian roots died with Mirko Filipovic.

“Now Stipe, an average wrestler at best for Cleveland State and a mid west Golden Gloves Champ – glorified toughman bouts – with a 14-2 record gets a crack at the most coveted MMA title on the planet. Maybe only Tim Sylvia carried with him a lesser resume when fighting for the UFC heavyweight championship and the stiff actually pulled it off.”

Werdum was the betting underdog heading into the rematch with Velasquez, from whom he took the title at UFC 188 this past June.

With the change of opponent, he enters the role of favorite. Historically, that’s a very good sign for the champion.

“They both share common opponents and there isn’t much to take from there,” Oddessa said. “Statistics guys won’t find any ‘value’ or bargains scraping through the data to justify wagering on Stipe at +175. On rare occasions, strange things happen when a fighter goes from an underdog to a favorite. So rare we remember them out of hundreds of bouts. This happens to be the case with Werdum but the majority of the time, better than 85%, the new favorites emerge with the victory. I think this will be the case here. Sure, everyone loves a ‘Rocky’ story, but no one outside of Werdum would be more shocked than me if Stipe pulls it off. It’s wishful thinking.”

| Title: Oddsmaker Joey Oddessa: Miocic upsetting Werdum is ‘wishful thinking’
| Author: Brent Brookhouse / MMAjunkie
| Date: Jan 25, 2016